This Iconic Frozen Food Is Also An Indicator Of Economic Recession

Food tells us a lot about the world. What we eat, how we get it, and why we consume the foods we do reveal a lot about culture, history, and the way we organize our societies. Those may seem like heady or academic approaches to the subject but, in many cases, food also reveals trends that are happening in the present moment — like which way the economy is heading, for example. Some foods, such as imported fruit, cheeses, and meat, are a sign of growing financial affluence (according to Science Direct). Others, like frozen pizza, are an indicator of economic recession.

You might expect this pattern from prepared foods; if the economy is spiraling downward, then it makes sense that people would begin redirecting their food dollars towards items that can be cooked at home rather than spending their cash on more costly experiences, such as dining out. Following the same line of thought, you might also anticipate that economic instability would push consumer purchases towards more generic or budget brand products. This was the case during the Great Recession.

However, as Business Insider reports, there is an interesting inverse tied to frozen pizza as a recession indicator. While sales of frozen pizza do tend to increase as the economic confidence of consumers goes down, we don't inherently shift towards buying cheaper stuff. Rather, premium brands of frozen pizza gain greater sales growth during these periods. Consumers may skip a night out at their local pizzeria, but they're less willing to opt for sub-par pizza pulled from the freezer.

As an industrial category of prepared food, frozen pizza has seen massive growth within the second decade of this century. During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, sales of frozen pizzas grew to nearly $6.6 billion dollars — a $1 billion increase compared to sales in 2019. And the marinara train hasn't stopped rolling. In 2024, sales reached nearly $7 billion, with some market minds, like the Greenwich Capital Group, predicting that this ready-to-cook category will continue to grow by 6 percent year-over-year. 

As hungry home eaters continue to put their cash towards frozen pizza, the industry becomes more competitive. Established frozen pizza brands, like DiGiorno, Tombstone, and even Newman's Own, are pressed to innovate new products. On the flip side, upstart premium brands, like Capello's, have emerged to serve the gluten-free pizza niche, while seasoned pizzaolos like Anthony Mangieri hope to jump from restaurant storefront into consumer freezers with brands like Genio Della. Regardless of whether a brand is new or old, they all face the same problem: a lack of cold storage space.

Per Greenwich Capital, grocery cold storage had a vacancy rate of less than 4 percent in 2024. That means there's little room in retail freezers and a lot of boxes jostling for shelf space. This can have a benefit for consumers — with limited space, brands and groceries must offer promotions that encourage sales and clears shelves. Our appetite for premium frozen pizzas grows, but the cost of them may actually shrink.