Is Dubai Chocolate Really Causing A Pistachio Shortage?

From Shake Shack's Dubai chocolate milkshakes, to the not so-secret-secret-menu Dubai chocolate-inspired latte from Starbucks, pistachio and knafeh-filled chocolate bars have gone beyond Dubai to take the world by storm. Their popularity has even fueled rumors they've led to a global pistachio nut shortage. Before flooding TikTok with taste test videos in 2023, the bar was only available from one boutique Emirati chocolatier: Fix Dessert Chocolatier, with locations in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Unless you live in the U.A.E. you've had to purchase Dubai chocolate online, usually from other brands capitalizing on its popularity by making their own versions. Now, a short supply of its key ingredient is threatening to make your options even more scarce.

With major chocolate makers like Lindt and Läderach joining in on the Dubai chocolate trend, and even reports of Crumbl Cookies developing their own Dubai-chocolate inspired desserts, pistachios are in higher demand than ever before. Primarily grown in the U.S., Turkey, and Iran (Iran has seen its pistachio exports go up 40% in the first six months of 2025 alone), the nut's price has increased from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound in the last year according to Giles Hacking, a nut trader with CG Hacking. However, some experts claim that the accusations linking the chocolate bars as the cause could just be a matter of bad timing.

While the trends make it look like the global pistachio shortage is the result of the Dubai chocolate bar's popularity, U.K.-based nuts and dried fruit expert, Darren Cheshire, explained to EuroFruit that the causality isn't there. "It's just a red herring," he said. "There is a general lack of supply from this harvest that became apparent at the same time as the hype around the Dubai chocolate bar, [but] there is no causality between them."

The truth is that the hype around the chocolate is only perpetuating a pistachio scarcity that already existed given the crop's alternating harvest cycle in California, and despite the state's total pistachio supplies reaching its lowest in recent years, the nuts have seen a more constant trend of increased yields in general. That's because pistachios naturally experience an alternating cycle of high and low yields known as alternate bearing, and in 2023/24 the nut's California harvest actually surpassed all records and predictions.

Also, while the numbers might show California harvests are down — a trend that is a natural part of pistachio farming — the pistachio's numbers in other parts of the world are higher than ever, with supplies out of Turkey and Iran far higher than those reported in 2023/2024. "If you look at the global data, thanks to Turkey and Iran, the total volume is higher than that of the year 2023/24," said Vittoria Calcagni, the head of public affairs at leading Italian dried fruit and nut company, Besana.